EGEB: 138GW of solar power in 2018?, California net zero residential after 2020, Trump Tariff attacked, more

China January polysilicon output hits record, says CNMIA – Read this article, multiple interesting data points to build some mental models on. The one that caught my interest the most – China’s polysilicon output of 24,200 tons in January could support production of 5GWp of solar mono-Si wafers and 6.5GWp of poly-Si ones. A monthly output of 11.5GWp of solar wafers means an estimated output 138.0GWp in 2018, exceeding forecast total PV installation capacity of 100GWp to be added around the world in the year. Global installation volume for 2017 was predicted to be 65-80GW. It ended up being 98-100GW (~40% growth). How is it that predictions were off on this one so much? And, with that, what are the odds that the current projections of 100-110GW (5-10% growth) are correct?

A few financial articles floated by, specifically focused on groups who buy solar assets to hold long term. This gets in my head because big money wanting to buy large projects means developers have an outlet with lots of cash to help them keep building. And the size of the pockets that exist in the world are big enough to transition our electricity and broader energy systems to net zero CO2. – Foresight Solar surges forward – During 2017 the company acquired 273MW of additional solar assets, including 127MW in the UK. It also made its first acquisitions outside the UK in the form of 146MW of Australian solar assets across four projects. The portfolio generated 426GWh of clean energy over the year. Greencoat lands highly sought after Canadian Solar UK portfolio – It comprises 24 sites spread across the UK. Seven are accredited under the feed-in tariff scheme while the remaining are eligible for ROCs varying between 1.4 and 1.2. The 142MW acquisition takes Greencoat Capital’s stake in the UK market to around 470MW from more than 60 operational assets. BlackRock completes new purchases as Kingfisher partnership shifts gear – BlackRock Real Assets has paid £15 million for three sites – the 5MW Wormit Farm asset in Fife, the 3.6MW Stanton under Bardon farm in Leicestershire and the 4.9MW Gretton array in Gloucestershire – all of which are accredited at 1.3 ROCs.

CA 2020 Building Code Draft: Zero-Net-Electricity New Homes – The standards’ first job is to ensure that as little energy and water are needed as possible—for example, homes built after 2020 are expected to have very energy efficient attics and walls, improved windows and doors, and properly installed insulation—or other efficiency upgrades that provide equivalent savings. Homes that have net-zero electricity will require some sort of energy generation onsite, and this law would – for all practical purposes – dictate that the structural characteristics account for local energy generation. Solar fits the bill. Seems there is a community solar variable added…I wonder how that could be shaped to avoid abuse. This will shape the experience of engineers, architects, builders, buyers, etc – and for generations that knowledge will percolate. Go Cali!

Malaysia and the Philippines demand consultations with US over solar tariffs – WTO – This argument I’d like to hear, as I’m under the impression that much of the manufacturing in these countries is via investing of Chinese manufacturers (Malaysia more than the Philippines), however, I am definitely not an expert on this one (though I did ask an expert). There are many countries, and companies, pushing back against this tariff. It will be in the news for a bit.

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